Week 3: Sensitivity: Case study

Week 3: Sensitivity: Case study

Like all managers, you must make decisions on the best information available, but what if it turns out that the information is wrong? You want to be prepared regardless of what happens. Since this is often the case when making projections, you need to consider the impact of a range of different possibilities

Complete the case study below on the excel template provided. You need to follow the instructions on the template carefully and only answer the areas indicated in RED!!!

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Part 1

Conch Republic Electronics is a mid-sized electronics manufacturer located in Key West, Florida. The company president is Shelley Couts, who inherited the company. When it was founded over 70 years ago, the company originally repaired radios and other household appliances. Over the years, the company expanded into manufacturing and is now a reputable manufacturer of various electronic items. Jay McCanless, a recent MBA graduate, has been hired by the company’s finance department.

One of the major revenue-producing items manufactured by Conch Republic is a smart phone. Conch Republic currently has one smart phone model on the market, and sales have been excellent. The smart phone is a unique item in that it comes in a variety of tropical colors and is preprogrammed to play Jimmy Buffett music. However, as with any electronic item, technology changes rapidly, and the current smart phone has limited features in comparison with newer models. Conch Republic spent $750,000 to develop a prototype for a new smart phone that has all the features of the existing smart phone but adds new features such as WiFi tethering. The company has spent a further $200,000 for a marketing study to determine the expected sales figures for the new smart phone.

Conch Republic can manufacture the new smart phones for $215 each in variable costs. Fixed costs for the operation are estimated to run $6.1 million per year. The estimated sales volume is 155,000, 165,000, 125,000, 95,000, and 75,000 per year for the next five years, respectively. The unit price of the new smart phone will be $520. The necessary equipment can be purchased for $40.5 million. Depreciation over the life of the project is provided in the solution. Also assume a wear and tear allowance is granted and it correctly calculated in the tax figures provided.

It is believed the value of the equipment in five years will be $7 127 443 which includes the sales price and the tax recoupment.

As previously stated, Conch Republic currently manufactures a smart phone. Production of the existing model is expected to be terminated in two years. If Conch Republic does not introduce the new smart phone, sales will be 95,000 units and 65,000 units for the next two years, respectively. The price of the existing smart phone is $380 per unit, with variable costs of $145 each and fixed costs of $4.3 million per year. If Conch Republic does introduce the new smart phone, sales of the existing smart phone will fall by 30,000 units per year, and the price of the existing units will have to be lowered to $210 each. Net working capital for the smart phones will be 20 percent of sales and will occur with the timing of the cash flows for the year; for example, there is no initial outlay for NWC, but changes in NWC will first occur in Year 1 with the first year’s sales. Conch Republic has a 35 percent corporate tax rate (however tax figures provided) and a required return of 12 percent.

Shelley has asked Jay to prepare a report that answers the following questions

  1. What is the NPV of the project?

The cash taxes has been provided in the solution.

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Part 2

Shelley Couts, the owner of Conch Republic Electronics, had received the capital budgeting analysis from Jay McCanless for the new smart phone the company is considering. Shelley was pleased with the results, but she still had concerns about the new smart phone. Conch Republic had used a small market research firm for the past 20 years, but recently the founder of that firm retired. Because of this, she was not convinced the sales projections presented by the market research firm were entirely accurate. Additionally, because of rapid changes in technology, she was concerned that a competitor could enter the market. This would likely force Conch Republic to lower the sales price of its new smart phone by $10. For these reasons, she has asked Jay to analyze how changes in the price of the new smart phone and changes in the quantity sold will affect the NPV of the project.

Shelley has asked Jay to prepare a memo answering the following question.

  1. How sensitive is the NPV to changes in the price of the new smart phone?

 

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